Tag Archives: gold
  • 20/03/2013

    (a) They’ll Do Anything; (b) Bullion as Hedge

    A couple of really interesting articles that illustrate powerfully some recent C@W themes. Bargaining session (a) They'll Do Anything.  This superb piece from Hinde Capital on the Cyprus debacle, strongly reinforces the point that politicians will do anything to keep the bicycle upright in the short term - and not just the usual slow-burning devaluations and inflationary tricks.  In the comments here we'd discussed more precipitate measures such as seizing private gold and

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    27/02/2013

    Sterling, Silver

    On Monday CU offered us a contrarian punt on Sterling, so here's a different view.  I don't much like the look of any of the major currencies right now, what with talk of competitive devaluation and every currency-bloc having its own compelling tale of woe. I took to billing in EUR again 6 months ago, which has served me well, but now I find myself unable to judge.  Is it all hopelessly relativistic ?  I am no macro-economist.

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    25/07/2012

    The Chinese Are Coming, Part 94

    I have a feeling we know how the comments thread will run ... but here goes, anyway. Yes, not content at coming over here with their blandishments of shiny new nuclear power stations and marrying our electricity industry, the Chinese are buying up the North Sea. Well of course they are.  Rather them than the French, eh ?   They are becoming Proper Players (these look like serious acquisitions), unlike the Russians who

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    07/06/2012

    Oil: Flirting With Double Figures

    In October oil stooped briefly to touch $100.  But it rebounded strongly, maintaining a flat-ish $125 through March (which I misread).  The earlier assessment was the correct one: the distinct prospect of GlobalRecession2 has put a dent in commodities, even as producing nations are opening the taps;  the Baltic Dry Index, that traditional coalmine canary, is in decline once more; and oil dipped back into double figures again this week. Since GR2 isn't remotely played out, we may expect more flirtation with $99. Stock markets have found reasons for

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    16/05/2012

    JP Morgan: Rum

    You don't need us to give you links to the current slew of lurid JP Morgan / London Whale stories: you can hardly move for them.  And what about that Ina Drew, eh?  (Must be OK with a name like that.)  Her with the "enviable reputation as one of its best managers of balance sheet risk" - and the $32m pay-off.  Nice work ! But if this seems to have come from out of a clear blue sky, here are a couple of suggestions for google searches in a quiet moment.  Try JP Morgan / silver:  the

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    18/04/2012

    Supply, Demand, Manipulation … Gas, Oil & Gold

    Starting gun for the battle royal over UK shale gas seems to have been fired. Timmy, (who first picked up on this from C@W), lost no time in firing an inflammatory salvo - no smooth-talking PR man he, but his original battle-cry was the right one: "a political battle that we must win".Yes, the supply fundamentals for gas are looking good. But oil ? Cnut Obama is at it again, asserting that it's all the work of the wicked speculators.

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    18/04/2012

    Supply, Demand, Manipulation … Gas, Oil & Gold

    Starting gun for the battle royal over UK shale gas seems to have been fired. Timmy, (who first picked up on this from C@W), lost no time in firing an inflammatory salvo - no smooth-talking PR man he, but his original battle-cry was the right one: "a political battle that we must win".Yes, the supply fundamentals for gas are looking good. But oil ? Cnut Obama is at it again, asserting that it's all the work of the wicked speculators.

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    01/02/2012

    It’s Going To Get Nasty

    From my predictions for 2012:there will be a vast surge in UK crimes against property (often inevitably involving violence), including some really nasty burglaries on folk keeping too much under the mattressThis is the kind of thing I meant. A lot of people keep dosh under the mattress: well who trusts banks, and how much interest do you get, and what if we wake up to

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    25/01/2012

    Oil and More Rumours of Wars

    Just as the Baltic Dry falls through the floor (a reliable indicator of global slowdown), our good friends Gazprom cut their prices again, and commodities soften generally, oil is once again in the spotlight. And not in a good way.Yes, at home and abroad the prospect of trouble at t'pump looks to be on the cards. Starting with Petroplus*/ Coryton: this may provide an excuse for a price-hike

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    07/12/2011

    Trading Update: the Precious Metals Strategy

    Well since CU mentioned it, *ahem*, it is indeed a fact that the PM strategy has worked out OK.As updated a while back, silver trading on a fairly active basis (by my sluggish standards) has yielded a tad over 40% - which is obviously sub-optimal but I failed to sell at the April peak. I've been flat since August, so there it stays. The issue with this book has been the grotesque VaR I was carrying whenever long. Boy, that's an ugly market: don't ever be away from your desk.The

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