Tag Archives: trading
  • 10/04/2013

    Xcite Energy – progress at long last

    It is a while since I posted on any of my share portfolio. Eagle-eyed readers without ad blocks will note that our one time site sponsorship with spreadbetmagazine (still a fab blog for trading insights) is at an end and during that time I posted about trading more over there. So now there maybe a slight renaissance on this site from time to time. Most of my trading has long since slowed down since I ended up in events based shares where there has been a lack



    Cyrpus – will be it AIM high or low?

    Zak Mir gave Spreadbet Magazine readers some interesting insights into a few AIM stocks this week, in particular Gulf Keystone Petroluem which looks to me as if it might well drop below the key 172p support level rather than start a new breakout - with a court case over the ownership rights to the fields hanging over it then it is not surprising there is nervousness around the stock. But what of the AIM market as a whole with Chancellor announcing the abolition of stamp duty on trading in AIM shares and so making them even more attractive to retail investors?



    How’s that UK Financial investment portfolio looking?

    Not great is it. On the day that HSBC announces near-record returns and even scandal-hit Barclays managed to stay in the black this year. Santander will be fine too. Lloyds Banking Group and RBS managed to make huge losses - in fact RBS managed the biggest loss since 2008. Now partly the way banks account for profit and loss on the value of their own debt is having too big an impact on results. Last year they all benefited to the tune of



    Sterling, Silver

    On Monday CU offered us a contrarian punt on Sterling, so here's a different view.  I don't much like the look of any of the major currencies right now, what with talk of competitive devaluation and every currency-bloc having its own compelling tale of woe. I took to billing in EUR again 6 months ago, which has served me well, but now I find myself unable to judge.  Is it all hopelessly relativistic ?  I am no macro-economist.

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    Wherefore the Pound now?

    Now here is an excellent article. The world of forex trading is relatively alien to me. Everyone I know who does it professionally seems to work on the basis that you need a few millions to punt with and then try and take a tenth of a percent a day here and there and somehow make your self rich. It always sounded remarkably hard to me - although I am yet to meet a poor FX broker which suggests there know something I don't. Also FX Trading



    AAA donwgrade will bring the Rally to a halt

    The loss yesterday of the UK’s AAA rating, in this instance a downgrade by Moody’s to Aa1, will have some very predictable effects. Firstly, both the other main agencies are likely to follow suit as the UK is presently on negative watch and its public finances are deteriorating. This means there is more short-term bad event news to come in the next couple of weeks. The graph below shows the sovereign debt reactions of other countries that have suffered the ignominy of a downgrade and so anyone who thinks the UK is going to keep record low gilt yields is in



    Bank Shares – Still toxic in 2013

    Back in the early 2000’s, bank shares were some of the best long bets you could take in the market. They were viewed as de facto defensive utility stocks, when in reality they were leveraging up their balance sheet from 20x to 30x and even 50x in the case of those exotic Icelandic banks Of course, we all know how this ended in 2007-8… the wheels not only came off, but the wreckage careered over the cliff as well and took the poor



    Rose Delivery

    OCADO Share GraphSo, Sir Stuart Rose, a much respected retailer is going to be chairman of Ocado. This has been allied to rumours of A takeover of the Ocado business by M&S. Now M&S is in trouble on the clothing side but its food business is going quite strong and has been for years. As far as I can see it does a great job in selling to wealthy empty nesters who don't need to make big meals anymore



    The FTSE has started strongly but some sectors look ripe for a pullback

    When and where will the party end? The New Year has seen big increases in stock prices amongst most major markets since the last minute fudge over the fiscal cliff in the US. It seems that the markets have become somewhat sanguine with regards to the shenanigans by US Politicians in their brinksmanship over all things economic and largely take things in their stride, with volatility back near recent year lows even as we hurtle towards the debt ceiling issue in



    Have the loan markets ruined my AIM Xmas pressie?

    The reality of the terrible financing situation in the UK for many small and medium sized firms at present is very clear in the markets when you look at volumes and the share prices of the harder to finance smaller firms. The bank loan markets, for so long the source of the majority of funding, have had a terrible year. Indeed, in a little known fact, the volumes are now at the same level as the post-Lehman’s crash. Many in the financial press compare this to some kind of sporting event, as they focus on the collapse in Debt Capital Markets